Real estate forecasts are a tricky thing. No one knows that more than real estate agents who are asked ten times a day what they think will happen with interest rates, housing appreciation, population growth, new construction and what is the next trendy color to paint the living room.
I’m not kidding on that last one. And, yes, I have ideas about that.
According to an article in the Denver Post, “Location Inc., a geographic research and real estate data firm, warns that years of rapid appreciation will shift into a stretch of falling prices starting in late 2019. More specifically, the forecast says, median home prices will fall by more than 20 percent during the following few years, due in large part to a growing gap in wages and home prices.”
Location, Inc. uses a new forecasting product called Scout Vision that uses over 200 variables and can drill down to ‘micro’ neighborhoods, predicting the direction of home prices in the next 3-5 years. It forecasts that Denver will see an overall valuation decrease of 9%, Boulder will get hit with a 17% decrease, Fort Collins around 5% and Greeley will stay flat, not losing, not gaining.
Wages vs. Home Prices
The biggest issue is slowly increasing wages that can’t match the double-digit increase in home prices.
The biggest losers will be home buyers who put off buying. Other prognosticators say that we won’t see a decrease in value but, instead, we’ll get to a ‘high plateau’ around 2020 and it will stay there for a few years.
Then there’s the article in Realtor.com that says Fort Collins is on the list of Top 10 Stable and Growing Housing Markets in the US.
“These are the Goldilocks of today’s housing market,” says Javier Vivas, manager of economic research for Realtor.com. “Not too hot, and not too cold, these markets present the right balance of housing and economic conditions for buying and selling activity to evolve naturally.”
Truth as a ‘Moving’ Target
The truth lies somewhere between the two forecasts. But the bottom line is that the population of northern Colorado will continue to grow for the next few years as will the demand for housing.
Buyers need to get ‘moving,’ talking to lenders, seeing houses and making list of needs vs. wants. Sellers need to take advantage of today’s market and consider making their own moves.
And, by the way, I just painted my accent walls a gorgeous Tidewater Blue. I’ve moved on from the color grey and am embracing the vibrancy of the ‘beach house.’ It’s summer at Cape Cod every day at my house.